What will NVIDIA stock be worth in a decade? It’s a fascinating question that can’t be answered with any absolute certainty. But ten years ago, on October 17, 2013, purchasing shares in NVIDIA would have cost $3.91 per share. Today, it would cost you more than 100 times that amount.
Let’s explore what affects NVIDIA’s stock price and what the company’s stock price will be worth in a decade.
What is NVIDIA?
NVIDIA Corporation is an American multinational tech company based in Santa Clara, California. The company was founded on April 5, 1993, by founders Jensen Huang, Chris Malachowsky, and Curtis Priem. Their vision was to bring 3D graphics to the gaming and multimedia markets.
Thirty years later, they’ve achieved that goal and so much more, providing networking, computing, and graphic solutions worldwide. In 1999, NVIDIA was responsible for the invention of the graphics processing unit (GPU). A GPU is a specialized processor that can swiftly render complex graphics for gaming and video editing applications. Its processing capabilities can also generate high-definition visuals, create real-time 3D graphics, and speed up machine learning.
NVIDIA’s professional line of GPUs is now used in workstations for applications in industries such as media and entertainment, engineering and construction, architecture, manufacturing design, automotive, and even scientific research.
In Q1 2023, NVIDIA again showed its dominance in the GPU market with an impressive 84% market share. NVIDIA’s dedication to producing high-performance GPUs with various applications, its quality product range, technological innovations, and strategic partnerships has secured its continued success as the market leader.
NVIDIA doesn’t just produce GPUs. Its current hardware product range includes:
- GeForce graphics cards
- gaming laptops
- professional laptops and desktop workstations
- cloud and data center platforms
- network infrastructure
- autonomous machines with embedded systems
Its software product range includes application frameworks for:
- automotive
- video streaming
- cybersecurity
- data analytics
- cloud gaming
- animation
- 3D workflow
NVIDIA GeForce RTX powers the ultimate platform for gamers and the world’s fastest GPUs. Players can experience breathtaking ray tracing, AI-powered DLSS, and more in games and applications, in the cloud, from their laptops, or in the comfort of their living rooms.
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NVIDIA AI
NVIDIA also boasts the world’s most advanced AI platform, NVIDIA AI. Its AI can facilitate innovation in almost any industry with the AI supercomputer, AI platform software, and AI models and services.
AI is powering change in every industry, from medical imaging to speech recognition and recommenders, improved supply chain management, autonomous vehicle applications, and data analytics. AI gives organizations the processing power, tools, and algorithms to make their dreams a reality and drive their work forward.
As of October 2023, NVIDIA has a market capitalization of $1.089 trillion and is the 6th most valuable company by market cap in the world.
NVIDIA Stock Price 2022 – 2023
In the last year alone, NVIDIA stock had a phenomenal increase from $118.88 on October 17, 2022, to $439.83 on the same date in 2023. Considering these historical figures could give us some idea of what NVIDIA’s stock price could be in another ten years.
Let’s look at NVIDIA’s stock price increase from 2022 to 2023. NVIDIA’s development has been mainly due to the growth in the discrete graphics card market, which in 2022 had annual sales of $29 billion but is expected to register as much as $44 billion in annual sales in 2023.
NVIDIA has also been at the heart of the AI boom in the tech industry. Its specialized processors fine-tuned to accelerate the calculations underlying generative AI applications, are in high demand. That demand is only expected to keep increasing as more industries use AI in their operations. Being on the cutting edge of technological innovation, especially in AI, NVIDIA will likely show accelerated growth.
However, stock prices are unpredictable, and many factors can influence them. These factors include economic conditions, consumer demand, and competition, which must be considered when determining a company’s prospective growth.
What Factors Influence NVIDIA’s Stock Price?
There are several factors that influence NVIDIA’s stock price that investors should consider.
Demand
Demand for microchips and GPUs used for AI is expected to grow rapidly in the next ten years, driven by the development of large-scale AI applications and models. The artificial intelligence boom has led to companies and nation-states racing to secure a steady supply of processors.
NVIDIA is already planning to triple its production of its H100 processor to meet the growing demand. The company aims to ship between 1.5 million and 2 million H100 processors next year, a significant increase from the 500,000 target of 2023.
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Partnerships Driving AI Growth
NVIDIA has partnered with other organizations, such as major hyperscale cloud providers, consumer internet companies, and start-ups, to advance AI research and applications. NVIDIA cloud services continue growing, and partnerships with cloud service providers such as Azure, AWS, ATOS, Google Cloud, Oracle Cloud, and Lenovo have accelerated data center growth.
Additionally, by offering AI as a service through these cloud providers, NVIDIA is accessing these companies existing customer base and introducing them to other NVIDIA offerings. This, in turn, can help expand the brand.
On October 17, 2023, NVIDIA announced its partnership with Hon Hai Technology Group (Foxconn) to advance the AI industrial revolution. Foxconn plans to integrate NVIDIA technology to evolve a unique class of data centers that will power a wide range of applications.
These applications will include the development of AI-powered EV and robotics platforms, digitalization of manufacturing and inspection workflows, and a growing number of language-based generative AI services. Yet another partnership that is likely to result in massive growth for NVIDIA and undoubtedly Foxconn, too.
Competition
NVIDIA faces competition in many segments as it has various products and services. In the GPU market specifically, NVIDIA has several competitors offering new solutions and innovations. Examples of the company’s competitors include AMD, Intel, Apple, Microsoft, and Broadcom, offering new solutions and innovations.
AMD, arguably NVIDIA’s biggest competitor in the GPU market, had a market share of 12% in the first quarter of 2023, a significant difference from NVIDIA’s 84% market share. However, in the future, AMD’s continued innovation, ability to deliver competitive GPUs, power efficiency, and affordability are important factors to consider.
With the demand for GPUs increasing, AMD could begin to cut into NVIDIA’s market share in the future. The same could be true for NVIDIA’s competitors, depending on their growth and increased production.
Government Regulations
On October 16, 2023, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced its plan to prevent the sale of more advanced artificial intelligence chips to China. This announcement directly affected NVIDIA and other chip stocks, and NVIDIA stock closed 5% down.
Earlier restrictions already banned the sale of the NVIDIA H100 processors, leaving Chinese companies to buy a slightly slower version of the H800, which complies with U.S. restrictions. However, future restrictions may ban the sale of these, too.
Indeed, these restrictions imposed by the U.S. government could hinder earnings in the long term and negatively affect its ability to complete the development of its new products on schedule.
How Much Will NVIDIA Stock be Worth in a Decade?
So, how much will NVIDIA stock be worth in a decade? While we can’t give a definitive answer to this question, we can look at what investment analysts are forecasting.
According to the Wallet Investor, by October 2028, NVIDIA stock will be trading at $861.77. In addition, Coin Price Forecast analysts predict that by 2033, NVIDIA’s year-end stock price could be $2,203, an increase of 422%.
Final Thoughts
It’s hard to say what NVIDIA’s stock could be worth in a decade. Although we could analyze historical data on the company’s growth over the last ten years, it’s likely to give us an inaccurate prediction. The emergence of AI and NVIDIA’s dominance in the AI and GPU market completely changed the landscape of the tech industry’s potential growth and NVIDIA’s potential earnings.
NVIDIA’s market capitalization will likely at least double from its current market cap of $1.089 trillion, but given it’s rapidly accelerating growth in the AI market, its partnerships with other companies, and its continued innovation, there is no telling how much its market cap could grow and how high its stock price could climb.
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